I wrote this letter to the editor of the Deseret News in 2001 and just recently discovered that it was published.
http://archive.deseretnews.com/archive/836628/Plane-incident-irrelevant-for-most-Chinese.html
Listening to the media coverage of the downed U.S. plane in Hainan, it would be easy to get the impression that the Chinese state-run media are on the verge of igniting a rash of anti-American protests. Here in Nanjing, at least, that is not the case.
My family and I have been living here since last August, where I am teaching for a year at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese & American Studies at Nanjing University. We are part of a small American community here in this city of 5 million. We meet regularly with a very small group of LDS people living in town (five are from Brigham Young University's China Teachers Program, and one is a recent BYU graduate studying Chinese). From our point of view, interacting with Chinese students every day, it appears that for the time being, this is not a terribly serious issue.
Unlike after the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade two years ago, when large crowds gathered spontaneously (but peacefully) to shout slogans and wave banners, nothing in the way of overt anti-Americanism is perceptible. The Chinese are very nationalistic (or patriotic, depending on your point of view) at times, especially the students and intellectuals. But for the average person on the street here it is just another new item with little direct relevance.
Perhaps the best illustration I can point to occurred yesterday afternoon as I was riding my bicycle through the downtown area. I stopped at a historic building to look inside, and after showing me around, a gentleman there asked me where I was from. I replied that I was from the United States and then mentioned that I was a bit nervous telling people that right now given the airplane incident. He laughed and said, "That's a nation problem, not a people problem."
It might be best to remember right now that the mood of the Chinese press does not necessarily mirror the mood of the majority of the Chinese people.
One thing that might come as a surprise is the amount of access Chinese citizens have to Western news sources over the Internet. CNN's Web site is regularly blocked, but there are myriad other sources available which are not. (The Deseret News being but one case in point).
While it is true that Internet access remains out of reach for the majority of Chinese, it is generally accessible to the students and intellectuals who were the most active element in the post-Belgrade demonstrations. Most students realize that the incident was an accident and not a deliberate attempt to harm. They may be a bit irked that U.S. surveillance planes regularly patrol their coast, but there seems to be little overt anger at America and Americans.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Wise Words via Dan Kim
http://fromonecambridgetoanother.blogspot.com/2009/02/one-question.html
My Serbian barber chided with me that American are absolutely terrified because the value of housing is declining a bit and retirement mutual funds aren't doing too well, while we don't blink imposing crippling economic sanctions as political leverage. He should know. He lived through some of them. I can't blame him for not having sympathy for the wealthiest nation's short term economic dilemmas.
My Serbian barber chided with me that American are absolutely terrified because the value of housing is declining a bit and retirement mutual funds aren't doing too well, while we don't blink imposing crippling economic sanctions as political leverage. He should know. He lived through some of them. I can't blame him for not having sympathy for the wealthiest nation's short term economic dilemmas.
Andy Kessler on How to Solve the Toxic Debt Problem
Why Markets Dissed the Geithner Plan
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431465155370931.html
Highlights:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431465155370931.html
Highlights:
First, strip out all the toxic assets and put them into a holding tank inside the Treasury. Then inject $300 billion in fresh equity for both Citi and Bank of America. Create 10 billion new shares of each of the companies to replace the old ones. The book value of each share could be $30. Very quickly, a new board of directors should be created and a new management team hired. Here's the tricky part: Who owns the shares? Politics will kill a nationalized bank. So spin them out immediately.
Some $6 trillion in income taxes were paid by individuals in 2006, 2007 and 2008. On a pro-forma basis, send out those 10 billion shares of each bank to taxpayers. They paid for the recapitalization.
Each taxpayer would get about $100 worth of stock for each $1,000 of taxes paid. Of course, each taxpayer has the ability to sell these shares on the open market, maybe at $40, maybe $20, maybe $80. It depends on management, their vision, how much additional capital they are willing to raise, the dividend they declare, etc. Meanwhile, the toxic assets sitting inside the Treasury will have residual value and the proceeds from their eventual sale, I believe, will more than offset the capital injected. That would benefit all citizens, not the managements and shareholders who blew up the banking system in the first place.
Some Good Stuff from Camille Paglia Today
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2009/02/11/stimulus/
Most mainstream American voters are undoubtedly suffering from economist fatigue these days. This one calls for tax cuts; that one condemns them. One says we're wasting hundreds of billions of dollars; the other claims that sum falls pathetically short. A plague on all their houses! Surely common sense would dictate that when Congress is doling out fat dollops of taxpayers' money, due time should be delegated for sober consideration and debate. The administration's coercive rush toward instant action, accompanied by apocalyptic pronouncements of imminent catastrophe, has put its own credibility on the line.
Speaking of talk radio (which I listen to constantly), I remain incredulous that any Democrat who professes liberal values would give a moment's thought to supporting a return of the Fairness Doctrine to muzzle conservative shows. (My latest manifesto on this subject appeared in my last column.) The failure of liberals to master the vibrant medium of talk radio remains puzzling. To reach the radio audience (whether the topic is sports, politics or car repair), a host must have populist instincts and use the robust common voice. Too many Democrats have become arrogant elitists, speaking down in snide, condescending tones toward tradition-minded middle Americans whom they stereotype as rubes and buffoons. But the bottom line is that government surveillance of the ideological content of talk radio is a shocking first step toward totalitarianism.
Macroeconomics Models & Policy Prescriptions
At the urging of two of my colleagues here at BYU, I have been reading through an article by Chari, Kehoe & McGratten in the inaugural issue of the American Economic Journal Macroeconomics. A couple of quotes in the introduction caught my eye, especially with regard to the current debate over the stimulus package and the use of TARP funds.
Until recently, the major conflicts in macro policy in the postwar era were between the Old Keynesians and the neoclassicals. The Old Keynesian view is eloquently and forcefully summarized by Franco Modiglianai, who argues that the fundamental, practical policy implication that Old Keynesians agree on is that the private economy "needs to be stablized, can be stabilized, and therefore should be stabilized by appropriate monetary and fiscal policies." The neoclassical economists, of course, recommend quite different policies: commitment to low average inflation rates on the monetary side and tax-smoothing on the fiscal side. Moreover, neoclassicals argue that even efficient allocations could fluctuate sizably.
Something insufficiently appreciated today is that even though the New Keynesian model has many elements of the Old Keynesian stories, such as sticky prices, the New Keynesian policy implications are drastically different from those of the Old Keynesians and are remarkably close to those of the neoclassicals.
Most modern macroeconomists of both traditions use equilibrium models with forward-looking private agents, so a commitment to rules is essential for good economic performance. Even in the frictionless versions of modern models, efficient allocations fluctuate sizably. So, even under optimal policy, a model will display sizable business cycle fluctuations. Eliminating all of them is considered bad policy.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy: There's No Stimulus Free Lunch
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123423402552366409.html
Highlights:
1) How much increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be expected from the stimulus package?
2) The increased government spending in the stimulus package is supposed to be only temporary, until the economy returns to a full employment level, but probably won't be.
3) The effects on consumers and businesses of the stimulus package depend not only on the stimulus to short-term GDP, but also on how valuable the spending is.
4) There are no free lunches in spending, public or private.
Highlights:
1) How much increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be expected from the stimulus package?
2) The increased government spending in the stimulus package is supposed to be only temporary, until the economy returns to a full employment level, but probably won't be.
3) The effects on consumers and businesses of the stimulus package depend not only on the stimulus to short-term GDP, but also on how valuable the spending is.
4) There are no free lunches in spending, public or private.
Our own view is that the short-term stimulus from the legislation before Congress will be smaller per dollar spent than is expected by many others because the package tries to combine short-term stimulus with long-term benefits to the economy. Unfortunately, short-term and long-term gains are in considerable conflict with each other. Moreover, it is very hard to spend wisely large sums in short periods of time. Nor can one ever forget that spending is not free, and ultimately it has to be financed by higher taxes.
25 Random Things About Me You Probably Don't Know Because They Are Totally False
I posted this to my Facebook account a week ago, but some of my friends don't have Facebook accounts themselves, so I'm reposting it here. Actually, one of the things on the list is true. Can you guess which one?
1. I am the only person to have won Nobel Prizes in both economics and physics in the same year
2. In the early 70’s I was the lead singer in a rock band called Journey, but I quit before they hit it big.
3. I once invented a time machine, but tripped and broke it. I bumped my head at the same time and can’t remember how to build one any more.
4. I once ate 500 slices of pizza in a single afternoon.
5. I wrote three operas before the age of two and even wrote a symphony while still in the womb.
6. I wrote a movie script back in 1972 when I was eleven, but I threw it away because I was embarrassed about it. It was entitled, “Star Wars.”
7. I broke my leg in high school and both Mr. T and the Ayatollah Khomeni signed my cast.
8. I can burp the King James version of the bible backwards, in one breath.
9. I trained as a ninja for a year in the 1980’s.
10. I speak fluent Cherokee.
11. I once arm wrestled a gorilla on a dare, but I lost.
12. I own a summer home on the moon.
13. I once had the name of every person in the state of Wyoming memorized.
14. I have an honorary doctorate in funkology from a musical college in South Africa.
15. I beat up Russell Crowe in third grade.
16. I won a million dollars playing the slot machines in Las Vegas, but lost it later that night at the roulette wheel.
17. I once killed an entire tribe of pigmy head-hunting cannibals in a knife fight in Tijuana.
18. I invented the electric nosehair trimmer.
19. In cub scouts I built a one-tenth size model of the Titanic out of popsicle sticks and glue.
20. I know where Jimmy Hoffa is buried.
21. During my freshman year in college I bench pressed an adult water buffalo.
22. Chuck Norris owes me $6.48.
23. There is a national park named after me in Uzbekistan.
24. I set a world record in 2004 by making 304,298 free throws in a row.
25. I dislike olives.
1. I am the only person to have won Nobel Prizes in both economics and physics in the same year
2. In the early 70’s I was the lead singer in a rock band called Journey, but I quit before they hit it big.
3. I once invented a time machine, but tripped and broke it. I bumped my head at the same time and can’t remember how to build one any more.
4. I once ate 500 slices of pizza in a single afternoon.
5. I wrote three operas before the age of two and even wrote a symphony while still in the womb.
6. I wrote a movie script back in 1972 when I was eleven, but I threw it away because I was embarrassed about it. It was entitled, “Star Wars.”
7. I broke my leg in high school and both Mr. T and the Ayatollah Khomeni signed my cast.
8. I can burp the King James version of the bible backwards, in one breath.
9. I trained as a ninja for a year in the 1980’s.
10. I speak fluent Cherokee.
11. I once arm wrestled a gorilla on a dare, but I lost.
12. I own a summer home on the moon.
13. I once had the name of every person in the state of Wyoming memorized.
14. I have an honorary doctorate in funkology from a musical college in South Africa.
15. I beat up Russell Crowe in third grade.
16. I won a million dollars playing the slot machines in Las Vegas, but lost it later that night at the roulette wheel.
17. I once killed an entire tribe of pigmy head-hunting cannibals in a knife fight in Tijuana.
18. I invented the electric nosehair trimmer.
19. In cub scouts I built a one-tenth size model of the Titanic out of popsicle sticks and glue.
20. I know where Jimmy Hoffa is buried.
21. During my freshman year in college I bench pressed an adult water buffalo.
22. Chuck Norris owes me $6.48.
23. There is a national park named after me in Uzbekistan.
24. I set a world record in 2004 by making 304,298 free throws in a row.
25. I dislike olives.
My Favorite Photo from 2008
Natural Arch at Escalante Grand Staircase National Monument
Originally uploaded by headlessog
This is a natural arch in the Esclante River Canyon a couple mile upstream from where highway 12 crosses the river. I took this photo a few hours before the sun went down from the opposite side of the canyon about halfway up a sandy slope. I was here with the boy scouts on a backpacking trip.
I liked this one so much I put it on my credit card.
John Taylor: How Government Created the Financial Crisis
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123414310280561945.html
Highlights:
Highlights:
Early on, policy makers misdiagnosed the crisis as one of liquidity, and prescribed the wrong treatment.
To provide more liquidity, the Fed created the Term Auction Facility (TAF) in December 2007. Its main aim was to reduce interest rate spreads in the money markets and increase the flow of credit. But the TAF did not seem to make much difference. If the reason for the spread was counterparty risk as distinct from liquidity, this is not surprising.
On Friday, Sept. 19, the Treasury announced a rescue package, though not its size or the details. Over the weekend the package was put together, and on Tuesday, Sept. 23, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testified before the Senate Banking Committee. They introduced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), saying that it would be $700 billion in size. A short draft of legislation was provided, with no mention of oversight and few restrictions on the use of the funds.
The two men were questioned intensely and the reaction was quite negative, judging by the large volume of critical mail received by many members of Congress. It was following this testimony that one really begins to see the crisis deepening and interest rate spreads widening.
The realization by the public that the government's intervention plan had not been fully thought through, and the official story that the economy was tanking, likely led to the panic seen in the next few weeks. And this was likely amplified by the ad hoc decisions to support some financial institutions and not others and unclear, seemingly fear-based explanations of programs to address the crisis. What was the rationale for intervening with Bear Stearns, then not with Lehman, and then again with AIG? What would guide the operations of the TARP?
Isaac Asimov and Game Theory
One of Isaac Asimov's most well-know set of books is the foundation series which he started writing in the early 1950's, with the books Foundation, Foundation and Empire, and Second Foundation.
I finished rereading all three of these recently and I ran across the following scene toward the end of Second Foundation.
Toran Darell and Pelleas Anthor are discussing whether Darell should go to the planet Trantor where his daughter has fled. He decides against going, even though he really wants to because he is worried that by following his first impluses he may be playing into the hands of the Second Foundation, a group of psychologists that are manipulating galactic history.
Darell speaks first in the excerpt below.
I finished rereading all three of these recently and I ran across the following scene toward the end of Second Foundation.
Toran Darell and Pelleas Anthor are discussing whether Darell should go to the planet Trantor where his daughter has fled. He decides against going, even though he really wants to because he is worried that by following his first impluses he may be playing into the hands of the Second Foundation, a group of psychologists that are manipulating galactic history.
Darell speaks first in the excerpt below.
Asimov published Second Foundation in 1953. John Nash's pioneering work establishing the foundations of game theory was published between 1950 and 1953. Was Asimov aware of Nash's work or did he come up with this all on his own? The premise behind the books is that future history is knowable by predictions from what Asimov calls "psychohistory", a mathematical science that relys on the mass behavior of large groups of people in much the same way that physics relies on the mass behavior of large numbers of fundamental particles. I wonder if Asimov was talking with economists at the time and if he may have been exposed to the relatively new ideas behind game theory. On the other hand, Asimov was a really, really bright fellow and it is not at all unlikely that these are his original ideas. He certainly has the right intuitiuon."I would rather present them with an improbable reaction. I will stay here, despite the fact that I yearn very desperately to leave. No! Because I yearn very desperately to leave."
The younger man smiled sourly. "You don't know your own mind as well as they might. Suppose that -- knowing you -- they might count on what you think, merely think, is the improbable reaction, simply by knowing in advance what your line of reasoning would be."
"In that case, there is no escape. For if I follow the reasoning you have just outlined and go to Trantor, they may have foreseen that, too. There is an endless cycle of double-double-double-double-crosses. No matter how far I follow that cycle, I can only either go or stay. The intricate act of luring my daughter halfway across the Galaxy cannot be meant to make me stay where I am, since I would most certainly have stayed if they had done nothing. It can only be to make me move, and so I will stay."pp. 214-215 in the Bantam paperpack edition, November 1991
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Jeff Miron: Libertarian Ideas to Stimulate Economy
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/05/miron.libertarian.stimulus/index.html
Highlights:
Highlights:
When libertarians question the merit of President Obama's stimulus package, a frequent rejoinder is, "Well, we have to do something." This is hardly a persuasive response. If the cure is worse than the disease, it is better to live with the disease.
In any case, libertarians do not argue for doing nothing; rather, they advocate eliminating or adjusting policies that are bad for the economy independent of the recession. Here is a stimulus package that libertarians can endorse:
- Repeal the Corporate Income Tax
- Increase Carbon Taxes While Lowering Marginal Tax Rates
- Moderate the Growth of Entitlements
- Eliminate Wasteful Spending
- Withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan
- Limit Union Power
- Renew the U.S. Commitment to Free Trade
- Expand Legal Immigration
- Stop Bailing out Businesses that Took on Too Much Risk
Friday, February 6, 2009
Diamond Fork Campground
This is what Diamond Fork campground looked like this morning. Not very good for cross-country skiing, if you ask me.
The scouts were supposed to go camping here tonight and then do some skiing and paintball shooting tomorrow morning, but it has been raining most of the day. I drove up this morning to check the campground out and it was more slush than snow. We're having a breakfast tomorrow instead!
Tiananmen at Panoramio
This is my most viewed photo at Panoramio; over 3000 views. You can also see it on Google Earth if you select the right buttons.
Most Favorites and Comments
This photo is the one that has the most comments and is also the one that has been chosen as a favorite by the most people of all my photos posted on Flickr.
Most Views
Flickr says this photo has been viewed more than any other I have posted there. Almost 200 times, which is still not very many.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Some Interesting Inaugural Artwork
I noticed these today on Yahoo. Some interesting media that artists used to celebrate the inauguration of President Obama.
"A pizza in the form of U.S. President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle, by chef Gaetano Esposito, is displayed in Naples January 22, 2009. The pizza is made with cream of eggplant, tomatoes, ricotta cheese, cream of artichoke, buffalo mozzarella and extra virgin olive oil."
"This undated image provided by UKFineArts on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2009, shows a micro sculpture by Willard Wigan showing U.S. President elect Barack Obama and his family in the eye of a needle. Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the 44th U.S. president in Washington on Tuesday."
"This image provided by Legoland California shows a Lego replica of President-elect Barack Obama's presidential inauguration, on display at Legoland California on Thursday, Jan. 15, 2009 in Carlsbad, Calif."
A Silly, But Surprizingly Entertaining, Game
My daughter, Joan, and I discovered/invented this game a few weeks ago. It's a great game to play at the restaurant while you are waiting for the food. We played this one on the back of the receipt at Apollo Burger. The first person draws a figure and writes the text explaining it. Then, each successive person adds something to the drawing and explains it in the text. Joan, Alan, Yeongmi and I did this one.
Habit Persistence in Antiquity
Habit persistence is a relatively new idea in economics and finance which argues that people's utility or sense of well-being rises with a rise in consumption only in the short-run. In the long-run, people become accustomed to higher levels of consumption and these new higher levels yield the same amount of utility as the lower ones did in the past. By the same token, if your consumption level drops you feel much worse off in the short run than you would if you had that same level all along.
This is not a new concept, however. Last night while reading The Trojan Women, a play by Euripedes dating from 415 B.C., I ran across the following lines spoken by Andromache, Hector's wife, who is discussing the death of another woman, a former princess of Troy.
This is not a new concept, however. Last night while reading The Trojan Women, a play by Euripedes dating from 415 B.C., I ran across the following lines spoken by Andromache, Hector's wife, who is discussing the death of another woman, a former princess of Troy.
Andromache: But if the choice is between a miserable life, mother, if it is between a miserable life and death, death is preferable. Because the dead feel no misery and they know nothing of grief, whereas for the living mortals, if a happy woman falls into misery she must deal with the memory of the joy she previously enjoyed. Her soul seeks the joys of the past.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Goofing Off
I am experimenting today with posting to my blog directly from my cell phone. Here is Alan and Mr. Pengy, the penguin Lynn gave me. They are so cool!
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