What are the Odds?

What are the odds of having your house hit by a meteorite? Obviously it depends on the size of your house and the elevation and probably a whole bunch of other factors, including the length of time we're talking about. Suppose the odds are 1 in a 1000 over your lifetime. Personally I think this is probably too high, but maybe not.

What, then, are the odds that you would be hit six times? that would be 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 in a quintillion. What are the odds of having one person in the world so afflicted by meteorites? With a total world population of 7 billion this turns out to still be approximately 7 in 1,000,000,000. Having something like this happen at random seems very, very unlikely to put things mildly.

Radivoje Lajic, who lives in Bosnia, has just had a sixth meteorite strike on his house. He claims that these are not random occurrences, but rather the work of aliens who are targeting him. Given the odds above, perhaps he is correct. At least it seems unlikely this is random. The aliens bit does not necessarily follow logically, but it is consistent with non-random meteor bombardment.

Lajic has put his money where his mouth is. He "has had a steel girder reinforced roof put on the house to protect it from the alien bombardment - which he funded by selling one of the meteorites to a university in the Netherlands."

For the sake of science, I think Lajic should move into a new house and see what happens. If the new house gets hit, then the aliens are after him. If the old one gets hit, then maybe they are showing displeasure with its architecture or something. If neither gets hit...? Seems unlikely, doesn't it?